Friday, December 9, 2011

forgot to add a comment made nov 12, 2011 re the market

http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/weekend-update-318/#comment-71177

Still think the 2012 bull market high #’s are coming. Think time has an influence here- the rest of 2011 barring some type of drama, the indices use time to flatten out , let the moving averages catch up. Two months of August to October backing and filling range 1075 to 1225- now plays out as mid October to mid December as the top of the backing and filling range of 1175 to 1300, drifting through the holidays and a furious buying spree to come on the heels of perhaps a suprise dip. Typically the last two months of the year , the seasonal trade is small caps as most of the institutions are done, definitely have my eye on that. One thing that has me concerned are these bear raids hitting individual stocks. Seeing some names decimated 50pct plus in one or two days is unnerving. Seems like the bears can’t attack the indices so hard as Ben B and Co are always there so they go after names one by one. Take care all and have a great weekend.
I think Gold is going much higher. No position at the moment.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

an alternative 13 month theory

as posted at Tony Caldaro's blog on Oct. 5, 2011
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/wednesday-update-308/#comments

Hi Tony,
Very interesting commentary regarding the relationship of 2007-2008 and the present structure. It seems to “me” the 50 week ma looms deep in the background as it did in 2008 somehere in the vicinity of SPX 1250-1270 where much resistance waits and as described the bottom falls out. Again, to me, that is the obvious case for the bear. – An alternative idea hangs around in my mind – a little more bullish medium term. Still looking at the weekly structure of the SPX- there still is a higher low and a higher high in terms of 666, 1250, 1000, 1350. Perhaps- just maybe the real end of the bull will be the ultimate retest of the mother trendline from 666 , 1000, 1300 , ??? Considering ‘one’ time relationship in this bull market , bottoms to tops average apprx 13 months, the 2012 election “result” would be the target (using Oct 4, 2011 as the low). Where does the mother trendline extend at the 2012 election? Approximately 1600 . I believe a similar number was one the blog has been looking for quite some time. And since my e.s.p. must really be rolling today- I have”1600″ drops fast to 1400 , grind to 1450, then dramatic long painful selling to 1163, return to 1220 and ultimately ending the bear at 1000. How long could it take? No less than the time equal to the bull= 39 months. (here I have been conflicted as bears usually take a fraction of the time, but given the fundamental circumstances- the financial crisis, I think it will be misery on top of misery)
After a recovery and base for about a year at least we will be on time for the 2016 next phase up (no coincidence I read it here first)
Thank you Tony for a wonderful blog and chance to express.
@almostnrml

Oh- why the 2012 election? Fundamentally- I think it is sell the news and the choices for our leaders will be the reason in addition to above mention financial crisis which will finally present itself in 2013 – Most likely March

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Time and time again this guy calls the market

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/250/1/February-15-2011-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html


February 11 2011 mclarenreport.net.au

S&P 500 INDEX

Just an update—we still expect this confirmed “blowoff” trend will capitulate into a top between Feb 27 and March 6. That will end this leg and be followed by a sharp correction that will likely not exceed 13 trading days. But there will still need to be a distribution pattern before changing the trend and will either be a test of the high, a three thrust pattern or a broadening pattern.

click on the above link to see the chart.

I had no idea he published a new free article on feb 14.
And still no idea why cnbc took him off the air.

Monday, February 14, 2011

SPX futures read


Working with a weekly chart of the ES (using TOS charts) the market has pushed itself out of a huge Fibonacci cluster that dated back to the 2003 lows. For 18 months the range was essentially 1000 to 1235. It looks like the market is ready to explode to the upside. The rational of QE2 seems to finally be understood. Stocks will inflate in price to adjust to the cost of money. I will comment about inflation and stock pricing later in my next post.

My targets on the ES. The market seems poised for a fast move.

Speculative Target # 1 is: 1346.42 is the -23.6 pct Fibonacci from March 9, 2009 to the first intermediate top at 1216.75 on 4/26/2010. Typically the -23.6 is a tough one to get by. It really would not surprise me if by op-ex (this week) that # was met and a 6 week pullback was initiated starting the next week after op ex. The most logical place to buy again would be 1235. The 50ma is now at 1250 and rising- so a dip below the 50 would get everyone scared - and the bears looking for blood but 1235 is huge support. Then most likely a push to 1426.82 (-38.2pct Fibonacci) and then 1491.8(-50pct Fibonacci) where I think the market will have started to stall. I think another 18 month duration 235 point type range is possible that will coincide with the 2012 elections. From there I have no idea - I do have projections into the plus 1700 area but it is way too early for that.

Speculative Target #2 : 1346.42 is just wink and nod as the bulls drive this to 1426.82 there I think it is a hard stop- and a longer time frame pull back to the same # mentioned above. Then I think we stall out and grind around 1300. After the grind period, if the buyers don't come back to bust up over 1600 into new highs I might be a little nervous into the election as I think something has changed. Have interest rates risen drastically to combat inflation? Is there an international conflict? Perhaps more domestic terrorism. Something won't be right, the market isn't going higher and risk may start to leave the market.

Speculative Target # 3: The market has never heard of almost blogging and is going to that big 1790.00 in the sky. I will be left behind looking for my 1235.

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