Saturday, October 8, 2011

an alternative 13 month theory

as posted at Tony Caldaro's blog on Oct. 5, 2011

Hi Tony,
Very interesting commentary regarding the relationship of 2007-2008 and the present structure. It seems to “me” the 50 week ma looms deep in the background as it did in 2008 somehere in the vicinity of SPX 1250-1270 where much resistance waits and as described the bottom falls out. Again, to me, that is the obvious case for the bear. – An alternative idea hangs around in my mind – a little more bullish medium term. Still looking at the weekly structure of the SPX- there still is a higher low and a higher high in terms of 666, 1250, 1000, 1350. Perhaps- just maybe the real end of the bull will be the ultimate retest of the mother trendline from 666 , 1000, 1300 , ??? Considering ‘one’ time relationship in this bull market , bottoms to tops average apprx 13 months, the 2012 election “result” would be the target (using Oct 4, 2011 as the low). Where does the mother trendline extend at the 2012 election? Approximately 1600 . I believe a similar number was one the blog has been looking for quite some time. And since my e.s.p. must really be rolling today- I have”1600″ drops fast to 1400 , grind to 1450, then dramatic long painful selling to 1163, return to 1220 and ultimately ending the bear at 1000. How long could it take? No less than the time equal to the bull= 39 months. (here I have been conflicted as bears usually take a fraction of the time, but given the fundamental circumstances- the financial crisis, I think it will be misery on top of misery)
After a recovery and base for about a year at least we will be on time for the 2016 next phase up (no coincidence I read it here first)
Thank you Tony for a wonderful blog and chance to express.

Oh- why the 2012 election? Fundamentally- I think it is sell the news and the choices for our leaders will be the reason in addition to above mention financial crisis which will finally present itself in 2013 – Most likely March

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