Almost Blogging

forgot to add a comment made nov 12, 2011 re the market

2011-12-09T13:44:00.000-08:00

http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/weekend-update-318/#comment-71177

Still think the 2012 bull market high #’s are coming. Think time has an influence here- the rest of 2011 barring some type of drama, the indices use time to flatten out , let the moving averages catch up. Two months of August to October backing and filling range 1075 to 1225- now plays out as mid October to mid December as the top of the backing and filling range of 1175 to 1300, drifting through the holidays and a furious buying spree to come on the heels of perhaps a suprise dip. Typically the last two months of the year , the seasonal trade is small caps as most of the institutions are done, definitely have my eye on that. One thing that has me concerned are these bear raids hitting individual stocks. Seeing some names decimated 50pct plus in one or two days is unnerving. Seems like the bears can’t attack the indices so hard as Ben B and Co are always there so they go after names one by one. Take care all and have a great weekend.
I think Gold is going much higher. No position at the moment.

an alternative 13 month theory

2011-10-08T18:21:00.000-07:00

as posted at Tony Caldaro's blog on Oct. 5, 2011
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/wednesday-update-308/#comments

Hi Tony,
Very interesting commentary regarding the relationship of 2007-2008 and the present structure. It seems to “me” the 50 week ma looms deep in the background as it did in 2008 somehere in the vicinity of SPX 1250-1270 where much resistance waits and as described the bottom falls out. Again, to me, that is the obvious case for the bear. – An alternative idea hangs around in my mind – a little more bullish medium term. Still looking at the weekly structure of the SPX- there still is a higher low and a higher high in terms of 666, 1250, 1000, 1350. Perhaps- just maybe the real end of the bull will be the ultimate retest of the mother trendline from 666 , 1000, 1300 , ??? Considering ‘one’ time relationship in this bull market , bottoms to tops average apprx 13 months, the 2012 election “result” would be the target (using Oct 4, 2011 as the low). Where does the mother trendline extend at the 2012 election? Approximately 1600 . I believe a similar number was one the blog has been looking for quite some time. And since my e.s.p. must really be rolling today- I have”1600″ drops fast to 1400 , grind to 1450, then dramatic long painful selling to 1163, return to 1220 and ultimately ending the bear at 1000. How long could it take? No less than the time equal to the bull= 39 months. (here I have been conflicted as bears usually take a fraction of the time, but given the fundamental circumstances- the financial crisis, I think it will be misery on top of misery)
After a recovery and base for about a year at least we will be on time for the 2016 next phase up (no coincidence I read it here first)
Thank you Tony for a wonderful blog and chance to express.
@almostnrml

Oh- why the 2012 election? Fundamentally- I think it is sell the news and the choices for our leaders will be the reason in addition to above mention financial crisis which will finally present itself in 2013 – Most likely March

Time and time again this guy calls the market

2011-03-02T20:21:00.000-08:00

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/250/1/February-15-2011-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html

February 11 2011 mclarenreport.net.au

S&P 500 INDEX

Just an update—we still expect this confirmed “blowoff” trend will capitulate into a top between Feb 27 and March 6. That will end this leg and be followed by a sharp correction that will likely not exceed 13 trading days. But there will still need to be a distribution pattern before changing the trend and will either be a test of the high, a three thrust pattern or a broadening pattern.

click on the above link to see the chart.

I had no idea he published a new free article on feb 14.
And still no idea why cnbc took him off the air.

SPX futures read

2011-02-14T00:12:00.000-08:00

Working with a weekly chart of the ES (using TOS charts) the market has pushed itself out of a huge Fibonacci cluster that dated back to the 2003 lows. For 18 months the range was essentially 1000 to 1235. It looks like the market is ready to explode to the upside. The rational of QE2 seems to finally be understood. Stocks will inflate in price to adjust to the cost of money. I will comment about inflation and stock pricing later in my next post.

My targets on the ES. The market seems poised for a fast move.

Speculative Target # 1 is: 1346.42 is the -23.6 pct Fibonacci from March 9, 2009 to the first intermediate top at 1216.75 on 4/26/2010. Typically the -23.6 is a tough one to get by. It really would not surprise me if by op-ex (this week) that # was met and a 6 week pullback was initiated starting the next week after op ex. The most logical place to buy again would be 1235. The 50ma is now at 1250 and rising- so a dip below the 50 would get everyone scared - and the bears looking for blood but 1235 is huge support. Then most likely a push to 1426.82 (-38.2pct Fibonacci) and then 1491.8(-50pct Fibonacci) where I think the market will have started to stall. I think another 18 month duration 235 point type range is possible that will coincide with the 2012 elections. From there I have no idea - I do have projections into the plus 1700 area but it is way too early for that.

Speculative Target #2 : 1346.42 is just wink and nod as the bulls drive this to 1426.82 there I think it is a hard stop- and a longer time frame pull back to the same # mentioned above. Then I think we stall out and grind around 1300. After the grind period, if the buyers don't come back to bust up over 1600 into new highs I might be a little nervous into the election as I think something has changed. Have interest rates risen drastically to combat inflation? Is there an international conflict? Perhaps more domestic terrorism. Something won't be right, the market isn't going higher and risk may start to leave the market.

Speculative Target # 3: The market has never heard of almost blogging and is going to that big 1790.00 in the sky. I will be left behind looking for my 1235.

Very interesting and insightful stock picks from our favorite chartists

2011-02-13T22:46:00.000-08:00

Looking for a dip buy at ES 1031- 1030 for Oct 29

2009-10-28T17:20:00.000-07:00

It's pretty bloody out there. If the bull computer is going to repeat, 1030.78 is halfway back from 964 to 1099 as well as outside the Bollinger band. Last breakdown, from 964 to 1076.. 1019 was 1/2 way back and an intra-day pierce and explosion, again outside the b-band. Before that , the rally was picked up at the 61.8 = 992 ( 964 to 1039)

Watchlist for the week of 10-18-09

2009-10-18T23:27:00.001-07:00

goat food: ACI, APC, BUCY, CMG, POT, PSA, RIG, SE, SOHU, I'm thinking about BNI, rockstaar SLM, MDT, HW, AMAT, SMH, LLY, ATVI, ERTS, DSX, VCLK, MON, KFT, DELL, CENX, SOHU .

This weeks watchlist

2009-10-07T00:01:00.000-07:00

goat... APA, BG, BIG, COP, CREE, DV, GS, KO, PCP, STAR, WNR, then bob WLT, AKAM, CLF, MSFT, AMGN, INTL, VMW, CLR, IBM, CRM, SINA, AAPL, BIDU, others RDC,GTLS,PLCE,BXG,HTM,GNVC,TDW,PENN,ATVI

WTF? No more PPT. It's RII (Rake It In)

2009-09-09T16:42:00.000-07:00

I was musing to some friends today about the usual WTF at the end of the day.
Can you imagine if the govt was truly in the market and buying it on the corrections (or perhaps causing and controlling them) and selling it at the top, all the time making money using GS, MER MS as their proxy?
Responses:
"if you have the deepest pockets, you theorectically could play that game"
and
"it would not surprise me at all if the Fed is now doing what you describe. that is why they're scared to death of an audit. if this is exposed, it will cause a total panic by foreign investors as well as public outrage at having their own government basically running a pump and dump scheme on the markets."

Party Like it's 999

2009-09-03T16:24:00.000-07:00

Forgive me if I go astray...
Ahhh, so we did come back to good ole triple digit 999.
Now gold is joining the party too. Gold also did the triple number dance.
Now what?
Do we move in tandem? How shall they dance? Will it be The Charleston, The Hustle , The Electric Slide or Dances With Wolves?
Will it be a knockdown drag out ?
The winner taking the quad award of 1111 and the loser being sent back to 888 or places beyond?
Oops out of time!

Fibonacci Extension Games

2009-08-01T20:52:00.000-07:00

I was playing around with the SPY chart and threw a fibonacci retracement on the last intermediate high 996 (0 pct) to the last intermediate low 868 (100 pct) using a 60 min chart. When I blew it out to a daily the extensions made me blink.
The 261.8 pct fibonacci extension is sitting at approx 660.
So I just had to look at 666 to 868. Plotting 666 as 0 pct and 868 as 100pct , the 161.8 pct is equal to 989. Where can we go? Looking for that 261.8 extension from 666 to 868 , I found it at 1185.
Some other fun fibs.
Aug 11, 2008 - almost one yr ago the high was 1313. Plot to 1313 to 666 and the 50 pct is 989.
On the upside- 61.8 is 1065 and and 78.6 is 1173.
On the downside- 38.2 is 913 and 23.6 is 819.
My opinion?
Came pretty close with the triple number extravaganza. On the upside maybe we could see a 4 digi- 1111.
It wouldn't suprise me if we tapped back to the mentioned 38.2 (913) that would be a significant higher low from 868 as well as incredible support and then the blast to 1111.
I don't think a break of 950 or 930 would change the symmetry of the chart, rather it would reflect approx Oct. 15 , 2008 to Nov. 15, 2008 all that pinball action before we went down. Now that would be symmetry.

Triple Number Magic?

2009-05-02T14:03:00.000-07:00

While everyone else is looking for Elliott Waves, Doji's, Swing highs, Fibonacci, Harami, Volume, Overbought, Momentum....
Why not just silly number games?

Scenario #1
SPX
666 to 888 = 222
50 pct of 222= 111
888-111 = 777

Scenario #2
SPX
666 to 999 = 333 (50 pct)
2/3 = 222
to get to 777

then again it is a chopper
so how about
666 to 888 to 777 to 999 to 888 to 777

But don't forget the Chinese love the number 8 so they could be lined up at the door.